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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–7 on winners spread MAE 10.6 19 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Grambling @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-7.0	144.0	22%	81–77	✓
Holy Cross @ Boston University	+1.3	132.3	58%	59–69	✓
Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana	+7.0	137.9	77%	70–62	✗
Nicholls @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+2.1	146.4	60%	82–75	✗
South Alabama @ UL Monroe	-11.6	131.0	14%	66–77	✗
Florida A&M @ Jackson State	+6.5	146.2	77%	72–62	✗
Iowa @ Ohio State	+7.5	158.0	77%	65–82	✓
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	-4.2	141.9	33%	74–73	✓
Northwestern State @ Lamar	+2.7	130.9	62%	59–69	✓
Incarnate Word @ LSU New Orleans	-1.2	147.8	44%	74–58	✓
NC State @ Duke	+18.4	135.8	91%	64–74	✓
East Texas A&M @ Stephen F. Austin	+6.2	129.1	71%	72–79	✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama State	+3.1	145.4	63%	80–69	✗
Southern @ Mississippi Valley State	-15.9	130.3	12%	63–42	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama A&M	-2.2	151.3	38%	82–98	✗
Towson @ Northeastern	+1.6	135.7	58%	75–65	✗
UCLA @ USC	-1.5	141.1	48%	82–76	✓
Iowa State @ Arizona	+1.5	153.7	53%	75–86	✓
St. John's @ Georgetown	-5.5	135.7	29%	66–41	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.