Well you know that it's a shame and a pity you were raised up in the city / And you never learned nothing about country ways "Not So Sweet Martha Lorraine" - Country Joe and the Fish
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–8 on winners spread MAE 9.4 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Navy @ North Carolina +13.7 148.3 85% 61–73 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Delaware +5.3 140.4 70% 70–81 ✓
NJIT @ Drexel +0.4 140.3 49% 43–75 ✓
Towson @ James Madison +0.9 131.1 49% 75–81 ✓
New Haven @ Seton Hall +22.1 127.2 90% 45–68 ✓
New Hampshire @ Providence +13.8 147.1 87% 66–98 ✓
UT Martin @ Florida State +9.0 150.4 72% 73–87 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina +17.0 150.4 88% 58–87 ✓
Princeton @ Iona +12.0 148.9 86% 69–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Xavier +4.0 141.7 65% 69–99 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Detroit Mercy +0.7 146.9 50% 72–62 ✗
Jacksonville @ George Mason +11.7 133.5 82% 57–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Longwood +11.5 130.1 86% 83–82 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Kent State +10.6 152.6 83% 78–93 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Charleston Southern +2.8 161.9 62% 91–103 ✓
East Carolina @ UNC Wilmington +8.8 142.6 78% 60–85 ✓
Boston University @ Columbia +7.2 145.2 77% 49–54 ✓
Hampton @ Boston College +11.8 134.8 84% 52–63 ✓
Holy Cross @ Brown +0.3 133.4 44% 49–68 ✓
Saint Francis @ Lehigh +15.0 142.9 88% 62–79 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia Tech +8.3 151.4 76% 66–68 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Morgan State +2.6 151.1 62% 79–73 ✗
Winthrop @ Arkansas +6.8 152.4 77% 83–84 ✓
Alcorn State @ LSU +24.9 152.8 91% 81–107 ✓
Austin Peay @ Ole Miss +8.0 134.8 75% 65–72 ✓
Montana @ Texas A&M +4.8 155.6 57% 81–86 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ DePaul +12.7 144.4 86% 62–93 ✓
Little Rock @ Murray State +19.7 148.6 90% 68–89 ✓
UT Arlington @ Evansville -0.3 128.0 46% 84–76 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Texas State +1.6 135.7 56% 49–63 ✓
Chicago State @ Minnesota +21.1 143.3 90% 54–66 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +15.9 139.0 88% 57–70 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ SMU +17.1 153.4 90% 60–106 ✓
Rhode Island @ Yale +19.5 150.2 90% 86–77 ✗
Army @ Cornell +17.3 150.1 90% 73–86 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa +17.5 146.9 89% 70–99 ✓
Kansas @ Duke +6.7 143.3 75% 66–78 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Fresno State -2.5 140.0 32% 78–80 ✗
Grambling @ San Diego +4.7 141.7 67% 68–78 ✓
Wichita State @ Boise State +5.6 146.0 67% 59–62 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Utah +12.0 149.6 85% 77–85 ✓
Monmouth @ Syracuse +23.0 129.1 91% 73–78 ✓
Rider @ Texas +23.9 130.3 90% 65–99 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Pepperdine -1.4 144.0 35% 79–90 ✗
Southern @ Washington +21.7 153.3 91% 93–99 ✓
Northwestern State @ San Francisco +16.9 146.8 89% 64–84 ✓
UC Davis @ Nevada +7.7 144.1 78% 75–71 ✗
Troy @ San Diego State +12.5 133.5 82% 108–107 ✗
Idaho State @ Santa Clara +13.9 147.2 86% 55–64 ✓
UC Riverside @ California Baptist +12.0 142.0 85% 57–80 ✓
Louisiana @ Stanford +18.2 137.1 90% 66–93 ✓
Presbyterian @ California +17.9 138.4 89% 57–67 ✓
Sacramento State @ UCLA +12.1 139.3 85% 48–79 ✓
Alabama State @ Air Force +0.1 134.8 45% 64–66 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Michigan +17.0 149.6 87% 61–86 ✓
Harvard @ Penn State +15.9 139.5 88% 80–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.