The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–8 on winners spread MAE 8.1 20 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Delaware State @ Howard +8.6 126.9 81% 58–84 ✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama State +6.8 149.8 78% 66–81 ✓
Grambling @ Florida A&M -3.0 139.9 37% 84–91 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M +1.8 160.2 61% 61–73 ✓
Southern @ Bethune-Cookman +4.3 154.5 68% 77–73 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +3.3 126.6 61% 74–70 ✗
South Carolina State @ Coppin State +0.1 138.9 55% 74–72 ✗
Houston Christian @ Lamar +5.2 129.8 71% 56–64 ✓
Navy @ American University -1.0 138.9 46% 51–65 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Stephen F. Austin +11.2 137.1 85% 46–56 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +0.3 138.1 54% 79–76 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Northwestern State -1.9 140.2 42% 63–64 ✗
Nicholls @ McNeese +11.4 145.7 87% 68–94 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ East Texas A&M -4.1 135.1 34% 61–50 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern +9.3 140.8 84% 51–84 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama A&M +8.8 140.0 81% 91–100 ✓
Villanova @ Providence -3.5 153.2 33% 88–82 ✓
Marquette @ St. John's +16.9 152.4 90% 68–92 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +8.9 134.2 83% 59–77 ✓
Kent State @ Buffalo +3.4 158.5 71% 87–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.