We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–7 on winners spread MAE 10.8 32 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Nebraska @ Michigan +10.7 147.5 83% 72–75 ✓
Arkansas @ Oklahoma -5.8 162.8 28% 83–79 ✓
Virginia @ Notre Dame -6.3 141.1 27% 100–97 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Lamar +5.4 139.5 74% 61–82 ✓
Richmond @ VCU +10.2 149.4 84% 69–77 ✓
Rhode Island @ Dayton +5.6 134.6 72% 81–76 ✗
Arizona State @ UCF +8.5 157.7 80% 76–79 ✓
Syracuse @ NC State +12.3 151.5 87% 68–88 ✓
Toledo @ Akron +13.2 158.1 87% 81–91 ✓
Ohio @ Kent State +6.1 158.3 77% 57–72 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan -6.9 136.4 22% 65–100 ✗
Buffalo @ Bowling Green +7.5 146.6 79% 89–78 ✗
McNeese @ SE Louisiana -12.1 133.4 15% 76–66 ✓
Providence @ UConn +14.3 159.4 88% 81–87 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Louis +13.1 159.7 87% 76–79 ✓
Missouri @ Alabama +10.9 161.1 86% 64–90 ✓
Indiana State @ UIC +8.3 139.9 81% 74–76 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech +11.0 151.2 86% 65–71 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian -1.5 135.5 44% 75–81 ✗
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois -2.3 141.0 41% 65–85 ✗
Kansas State @ West Virginia +5.2 142.9 72% 54–59 ✓
Purdue @ Indiana -2.0 144.6 38% 67–72 ✗
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt +6.5 158.4 74% 55–80 ✓
Massachusetts @ Miami (OH) +13.2 158.6 87% 84–86 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Loyola Chicago -5.4 141.5 25% 85–64 ✓
Creighton @ Marquette -4.7 149.7 30% 62–86 ✗
Boise State @ San José State -11.0 140.0 16% 89–58 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Nevada +4.4 140.3 70% 60–66 ✓
New Mexico @ UNLV -5.4 148.9 28% 89–61 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Southern +16.4 141.7 90% 69–80 ✓
Lehigh @ Army +0.3 148.5 49% 64–67 ✓
Baylor @ Cincinnati +0.9 145.2 58% 57–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.