You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–18 on winners spread MAE 8.5 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Butler @ St. John's +10.9 157.6 83% 70–92 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois +0.5 129.9 49% 50–65 ✓
Bucknell @ Lafayette +2.9 137.7 61% 79–81 ✓
La Salle @ Fordham +1.8 131.4 58% 58–64 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne +4.1 151.7 68% 87–79 ✗
Davidson @ George Mason +7.8 135.3 79% 52–60 ✓
Rice @ East Carolina +0.3 139.4 50% 83–77 ✗
Charlotte @ Temple +2.7 137.7 66% 80–76 ✗
USC @ Iowa +9.1 142.3 80% 72–73 ✓
Holy Cross @ Colgate +9.5 141.9 84% 74–79 ✓
California @ Florida State -2.5 148.3 36% 61–63 ✗
American University @ Loyola Maryland -5.0 141.1 26% 68–77 ✗
Navy @ Boston University -4.2 139.7 32% 58–50 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne -0.8 156.8 48% 74–65 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris +9.8 160.9 84% 58–74 ✓
Mississippi State @ LSU +10.8 149.6 84% 80–66 ✗
Tennessee @ Georgia +3.8 159.5 68% 86–85 ✗
Texas @ Auburn +6.1 155.7 74% 82–88 ✓
West Georgia @ Bellarmine +3.6 150.6 67% 74–77 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Queens University +3.0 153.0 66% 100–90 ✗
Austin Peay @ Eastern Kentucky -3.5 144.2 33% 90–82 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International +4.0 141.0 67% 78–74 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Kennesaw State +2.2 154.9 63% 69–72 ✓
Evansville @ Drake +9.7 139.9 85% 78–82 ✓
Xavier @ Seton Hall +6.4 136.1 74% 68–86 ✓
Belmont @ Valparaiso -6.3 139.5 26% 78–77 ✓
North Texas @ Tulsa +11.3 140.9 87% 66–82 ✓
UAB @ UTSA -13.0 145.9 14% 83–73 ✓
Denver @ Kansas City -4.9 154.3 25% 69–61 ✓
South Dakota State @ Omaha -1.2 144.0 46% 71–80 ✗
Marshall @ Texas State -6.4 144.3 28% 68–72 ✗
Old Dominion @ Arkansas State +6.9 153.1 78% 75–71 ✗
Sam Houston @ Missouri State -2.3 145.6 41% 80–71 ✓
DePaul @ Georgetown +2.8 137.5 62% 61–70 ✓
Florida @ South Carolina -7.2 148.2 22% 95–48 ✓
Wyoming @ Utah State +10.5 145.5 85% 62–94 ✓
Illinois State @ Murray State +2.8 150.5 67% 70–65 ✗
San Diego @ Pepperdine -0.8 143.1 48% 92–88 ✓
South Florida @ Tulane -7.3 152.3 23% 97–83 ✓
Minnesota @ Wisconsin +8.8 144.0 82% 63–67 ✓
Stanford @ Miami +9.0 145.6 82% 70–79 ✓
Delaware @ New Mexico State +10.5 135.5 86% 73–64 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP +0.4 125.2 52% 69–59 ✗
Houston @ TCU -4.1 136.3 29% 79–70 ✓
Seattle U @ Washington State +1.0 138.5 55% 58–70 ✓
Portland @ Pacific +7.1 142.0 78% 51–74 ✓
Oregon State @ Loyola Marymount +4.3 139.6 68% 72–69 ✗
Colorado State @ San Diego State +7.6 140.7 79% 50–73 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +11.6 146.8 86% 73–88 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon -3.1 135.7 35% 73–57 ✓
Samford @ Furman +7.2 143.0 79% 73–78 ✓
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire +4.6 139.8 69% 61–66 ✓
Bryant @ Binghamton -3.1 129.6 31% 60–63 ✗
Wofford @ Chattanooga -0.7 145.2 43% 81–55 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville +16.4 143.4 91% 50–69 ✓
NJIT @ UAlbany +3.9 136.9 67% 77–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.