← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →

40–14 on winners spread MAE 8.6 54 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly	+9.7	160.6	84%	76–108	✓
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian	-2.2	132.1	41%	64–57	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State	+4.1	139.7	67%	65–73	✓
Queens University @ Austin Peay	+1.6	153.6	56%	90–83	✗
Providence @ Georgetown	+2.4	156.3	59%	79–80	✓
Fresno State @ Grand Canyon	+9.3	136.4	82%	60–85	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge	+2.9	160.3	67%	90–77	✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine	+5.4	139.3	74%	69–79	✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State	+8.8	142.7	80%	50–74	✓
Auburn @ Alabama	+9.7	173.5	82%	84–96	✓
Oklahoma @ Texas	+5.9	156.8	73%	88–85	✗
California Baptist @ Southern Utah	-7.3	140.7	23%	82–75	✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer	+1.7	152.4	56%	77–73	✗
Elon @ William & Mary	+5.1	155.9	70%	62–72	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena	+3.0	130.7	62%	58–63	✓
UCLA @ USC	-1.6	148.8	43%	89–68	✓
Northwestern @ Minnesota	+2.5	131.4	64%	66–67	✓
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara	+1.0	141.2	55%	64–63	✗
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech	-3.3	144.1	33%	104–101	✓
Portland @ San Francisco	+4.3	142.5	65%	65–82	✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State	+3.9	141.0	67%	67–93	✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina	+0.8	147.4	54%	96–72	✗
Air Force @ Nevada	+21.1	141.8	90%	59–74	✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho	+5.2	151.4	72%	45–68	✓
Texas Tech @ BYU	+1.2	158.6	55%	76–82	✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas	+10.8	149.3	84%	67–66	✗
Arizona @ Colorado	-12.6	153.4	16%	89–79	✓
Washington @ Oregon	-1.2	137.5	45%	79–85	✗
Seattle U @ Pacific	-0.6	129.4	45%	58–61	✗
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i	+12.6	146.6	87%	84–75	✗
Penn State @ Rutgers	+3.7	147.7	69%	62–74	✓
Colgate @ Lehigh	+0.3	147.2	52%	69–76	✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington	+6.5	143.5	76%	85–70	✗
Winthrop @ High Point	+5.7	155.1	71%	76–91	✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC	-3.0	125.9	37%	84–69	✓
Memphis @ Tulane	-1.9	144.7	45%	96–95	✓
Charlotte @ South Florida	+13.9	154.0	88%	60–83	✓
Boston University @ Navy	+9.8	138.7	82%	73–72	✗
Queens University @ Central Arkansas	+2.2	154.3	59%	98–93	✗
Illinois @ Maryland	-15.6	144.3	15%	78–72	✓
Temple @ Tulsa	+14.1	151.6	88%	76–78	✓
UTSA @ Rice	+10.7	144.8	86%	71–80	✓
East Carolina @ UAB	+11.6	143.6	87%	83–90	✓
Drexel @ Monmouth	+1.7	130.8	57%	57–65	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay	-1.1	141.9	45%	96–76	✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State	+3.7	144.9	65%	67–69	✓
Michigan State @ Michigan	+12.2	147.1	86%	80–90	✓
Iowa @ Nebraska	+6.9	132.4	76%	75–84	✓
Houston Christian @ LSU New Orleans	+4.5	138.6	70%	60–73	✓
Towson @ Charleston	+1.8	128.5	57%	81–56	✗
Southern Miss @ Troy	+2.5	143.8	59%	70–78	✓
Marist @ Merrimack	+0.9	124.2	55%	57–58	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman	+5.9	144.6	73%	75–81	✓
Idaho State @ Portland State	+5.0	138.0	71%	78–85	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.