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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–12 on winners spread MAE 8.1 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas @ Iowa State +5.7 139.8 75% 57–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford +4.9 141.6 69% 75–79 ✓
UAB @ South Florida +0.8 156.2 47% 92–83 ✗
California @ North Carolina +11.9 154.3 85% 53–79 ✓
NC State @ Virginia Tech -0.4 133.3 46% 76–79 ✗
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure +12.0 133.3 86% 49–63 ✓
Massachusetts @ Fordham +1.2 151.2 56% 120–118 ✗
Duquesne @ George Washington +4.5 139.7 68% 73–65 ✗
George Mason @ Dayton +5.5 128.8 75% 67–59 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Missouri State +3.3 139.3 66% 73–51 ✗
Colgate @ Navy -1.0 136.7 46% 73–66 ✓
Holy Cross @ Bucknell +3.6 141.1 74% 82–86 ✓
Seton Hall @ Butler +8.6 135.6 76% 77–82 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State -0.3 148.2 45% 120–113 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +10.0 137.1 83% 59–72 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +4.3 134.9 71% 58–76 ✓
Wofford @ Chattanooga +0.5 146.1 50% 81–83 ✓
Samford @ Mercer -5.3 161.7 20% 75–74 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Furman +3.1 140.1 66% 70–73 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +16.6 136.0 90% 57–70 ✓
Penn State @ Michigan State +9.7 154.0 84% 85–90 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane +0.2 154.5 52% 65–80 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -11.8 135.7 14% 77–58 ✓
Georgia @ Tennessee +10.8 130.5 84% 56–74 ✓
West Virginia @ Houston +14.4 125.0 84% 54–70 ✓
Utah @ TCU +2.8 140.2 65% 73–65 ✗
Murray State @ UIC +1.5 139.7 58% 93–97 ✓
Indiana State @ Bradley +10.1 158.9 83% 65–118 ✓
Georgia State @ Texas State +8.6 147.3 81% 80–94 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +10.9 138.9 84% 62–75 ✓
Cincinnati @ Colorado -1.6 133.7 49% 68–62 ✓
SMU @ Virginia -5.6 128.1 25% 54–52 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Florida State -1.1 148.3 47% 70–82 ✗
Rhode Island @ Loyola Chicago -0.6 145.2 55% 77–81 ✗
Illinois State @ Drake +10.1 123.4 83% 62–66 ✓
Omaha @ Denver -4.2 145.3 31% 80–62 ✓
Purdue @ Washington -6.0 141.8 17% 69–58 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma +2.9 147.4 64% 77–73 ✗
Utah State @ UNLV -5.5 142.4 26% 62–65 ✗
Maine @ NJIT -8.4 130.8 17% 57–44 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +10.0 152.0 80% 79–76 ✗
Bryant @ UAlbany -0.4 155.8 49% 89–79 ✓
Stony Brook @ Delaware +8.3 146.8 80% 74–84 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine -15.1 143.7 14% 87–53 ✓
West Georgia @ Florida Gulf Coast +10.4 141.4 82% 60–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.