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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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19–6 on winners spread MAE 9.9 25 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
South Carolina State @ Delaware State	-0.4	132.3	50%	61–59	✓
Duke @ NC State	-8.3	146.4	21%	93–64	✓
North Carolina Central @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+2.1	132.6	51%	77–73	✗
Coppin State @ Howard	+18.3	139.7	91%	70–90	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State	+2.8	164.3	68%	93–101	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Incarnate Word	-6.9	140.3	27%	76–68	✓
Northwestern State @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+9.1	137.5	84%	62–74	✓
McNeese @ Nicholls	-9.1	142.4	17%	75–65	✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans	+5.8	140.5	76%	82–78	✗
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+9.8	133.9	83%	71–84	✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-7.1	142.1	27%	76–65	✓
Montana @ Northern Colorado	+4.9	149.4	75%	57–85	✓
Lamar @ Houston Christian	-3.0	131.0	33%	53–75	✗
Iowa State @ Arizona	+7.8	150.0	75%	57–73	✓
Idaho @ Eastern Washington	+3.2	149.1	64%	85–81	✗
Weber State @ Portland State	+4.6	145.9	71%	60–84	✓
Idaho State @ Sacramento State	-0.9	154.6	54%	65–83	✗
UMass Lowell @ Maine	-1.3	131.7	44%	67–56	✓
UMBC @ NJIT	-3.8	139.3	32%	91–52	✓
Bryant @ New Hampshire	+1.4	135.5	62%	83–88	✓
Tennessee @ South Carolina	-9.2	144.0	15%	78–59	✓
Georgia State @ Louisiana	-0.7	131.9	46%	75–84	✗
Alabama @ Georgia	+1.6	187.7	53%	88–98	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo	+4.7	145.5	73%	67–72	✓
Towson @ Stony Brook	-1.3	133.2	40%	69–57	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.