Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | LT +145 SHSU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +9 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SHSU -7.0 (+16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -6.1 (+15.1) | 139.1 (+25.9) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -5.6 (+14.6) | 137.1 (+27.9) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -6.2 (+15.2) | 139.0 (+26.0) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -6.4 (+15.4) | 136.8 (+28.2) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | SHSU 83 – 67 LT |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LT 90 – 66 SHSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LT 66 – 61 SHSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SHSU 72 – 66 LT |
| Jan 6, 2024 | SHSU 81 – 77 LT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#248) | 4.6 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#228) | 0.79 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#245) | 1.04 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#238) | 0.552 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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