Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MCN -900 RGV +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -9.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -11.6 (-4.6) | 141.1 (+1.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -12.7 (-5.7) | 140.2 (+2.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -11.4 (-4.4) | 142.5 (+0.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -10.8 (-3.8) | 144.6 (-1.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | MCN 84 – 80 RGV |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RGV 79 – 76 MCN |
| Feb 25, 2025 | MCN 100 – 65 RGV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MCN 93 – 63 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 19-3 | 14-8 |
| Home | 14-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#65) | 2.2 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#67) | -0.16 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#65) | 0.08 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#37) | 0.506 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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