Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -8.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -9.3 (+12.3) | 140.6 (+14.4) | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -8.7 (+11.7) | 140.4 (+14.6) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -8.0 (+11.0) | 139.7 (+15.3) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -7.7 (+10.7) | 140.7 (+14.3) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | MCN 84 – 80 RGV |
| Feb 24, 2026 | MCN 75 – 68 RGV |
| Feb 25, 2025 | MCN 100 – 65 RGV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MCN 93 – 63 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 14-8 | 19-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 14-0 |
| Away | 8-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#190) | 9.9 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#277) | 1.94 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#252) | 2.50 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.430 (#295) | 0.596 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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