Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -375 RGV +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +4 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -6.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -5.5 (-1.5) | 135.3 (+28.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -7.1 (-3.1) | 136.7 (+27.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -5.5 (-1.5) | 136.7 (+27.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -5.6 (-1.6) | 136.7 (+27.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 24, 2026 | MCN 75 – 68 RGV |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RGV 79 – 76 MCN |
| Feb 25, 2025 | MCN 100 – 65 RGV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MCN 93 – 63 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 19-3 | 14-8 |
| Home | 14-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#70) | 2.4 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#65) | -0.07 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#67) | 0.15 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#29) | 0.513 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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