Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -180 SYR +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +17 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -6.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -4.5 (+12.5) | 155.0 (-0.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -5.9 (+11.1) | 153.5 (+1.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -4.9 (+12.1) | 152.7 (+2.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -4.5 (+12.5) | 153.4 (+1.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | SYR 79 – 78 SMU |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SMU 73 – 53 SYR |
| Mar 5, 2025 | SMU 77 – 75 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#37) | 8.1 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#48) | 1.11 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#46) | 1.57 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#43) | 0.525 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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