Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -2500 CHST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +9 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -17.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -10.0 (-1.0) | 142.6 (-27.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -12.2 (-3.2) | 141.2 (-26.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -12.8 (-3.8) | 142.5 (-27.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -12.3 (-3.3) | 143.2 (-28.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | CHST 84 – 75 LUC |
| Nov 5, 2024 | LUC 79 – 72 CHST |
| Nov 17, 2021 | LUC 92 – 56 CHST |
| Dec 9, 2020 | LUC 88 – 51 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 0-0 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#163) | -10.9 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#145) | -2.63 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#114) | -4.51 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#139) | 0.329 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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