Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -33.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +36 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -23.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -17.3 (+18.7) | 146.3 (+1.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -20.0 (+16.0) | 145.5 (+2.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -18.1 (+17.9) | 146.7 (+1.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | CHST 84 – 75 LUC |
| Nov 5, 2024 | LUC 79 – 72 CHST |
| Nov 29, 2023 | LUC 62 – 53 CHST |
| Dec 9, 2020 | LUC 88 – 51 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#10) | 0.6 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#148) | 0.99 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#154) | 1.29 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#207) | 0.562 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.0% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.8% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 47.5 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.45 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.4% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.5% | 42.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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