Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
| Money | BU -220 LAF +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +8 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -12.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -7.7 (-15.7) | 126.3 (-16.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -8.2 (-16.2) | 126.7 (-16.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -7.8 (-15.8) | 126.3 (-16.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BU -8.1 (-16.1) | 124.4 (-14.4) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | BU 77 – 73 LAF |
| Jan 8, 2026 | BU 83 – 67 LAF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BU 66 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LAF 60 – 46 BU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BU 62 – 48 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 7-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#244) | -11.8 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#270) | -2.77 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#250) | -3.51 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#319) | 0.383 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 80.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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