Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | BU -150 LAF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | BU -2.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -1.1 (+0.9) | 133.6 (-3.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -2.3 (-0.3) | 132.2 (-2.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -1.3 (+0.7) | 131.9 (-1.9) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -2.0 (+0.0) | 133.2 (-3.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | BU 77 – 73 LAF |
| Jan 8, 2026 | BU 83 – 67 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LAF 60 – 46 BU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BU 62 – 48 LAF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LAF 59 – 51 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#289) | -7.4 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#271) | -1.53 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#279) | -1.72 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#259) | 0.430 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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