Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | LAF +105 BU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +14 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -1.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -1.0 (+13.0) | 131.8 (-25.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -0.2 (+13.8) | 131.1 (-25.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -0.6 (+13.4) | 133.1 (-27.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -0.1 (+13.9) | 135.0 (-29.0) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | BU 77 – 73 LAF |
| Jan 8, 2026 | BU 83 – 67 LAF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BU 66 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BU 62 – 48 LAF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LAF 59 – 51 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-14 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#294) | -4.5 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#304) | -0.91 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#293) | -1.21 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#305) | 0.445 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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