Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -138 WMU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | WMU -0.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -0.7 (-4.3) | 140.9 (+18.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WMU -0.1 (-4.9) | 141.1 (+17.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WMU -0.7 (-4.3) | 141.5 (+17.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WMU -0.7 (-4.3) | 141.9 (+17.1) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | BUF 88 – 71 WMU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WMU 97 – 64 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WMU 91 – 72 BUF |
| Feb 4, 2023 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 2-13 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#336) | -6.4 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.82 (#353) | -1.38 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.42 (#345) | -1.80 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#331) | 0.430 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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