Betting Lines
| Spread | WMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | BUF +120 WMU -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +33 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | WMU -0.6 (-32.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -1.3 (-31.7) | 149.0 (+12.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WMU -1.9 (-31.1) | 149.4 (+11.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WMU -0.1 (-32.9) | 147.6 (+13.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -0.1 (-33.1) | 148.5 (+12.5) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | BUF 88 – 71 WMU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WMU 91 – 72 BUF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WMU 82 – 77 BUF |
| Feb 4, 2023 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-9 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#346) | -9.2 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#325) | -1.55 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#327) | -1.98 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#323) | 0.437 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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