Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | WMU +170 BUF -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +9 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -2.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -3.1 (-5.9) | 151.5 (+9.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -4.7 (-4.3) | 149.4 (+11.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -3.2 (-5.8) | 152.2 (+8.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -3.6 (-5.4) | 152.8 (+8.2) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | BUF 88 – 71 WMU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WMU 97 – 64 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BUF 85 – 76 WMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WMU 91 – 72 BUF |
| Jan 6, 2024 | WMU 82 – 77 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-15 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#292) | -1.1 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#341) | -0.41 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.35 (#332) | -0.52 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#337) | 0.491 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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