Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -163 DEN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +4 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -0.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 179.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -1.1 (+2.9) | 162.6 (+5.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -1.0 (+3.0) | 165.9 (+2.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -0.5 (+3.5) | 166.0 (+2.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -0.2 (+3.8) | 165.3 (+2.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | DEN 86 – 79 UNCO |
| Dec 21, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 75 DEN |
| Dec 17, 2020 | UNCO 83 – 75 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 82.1 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#221) | 2.3 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#165) | -0.10 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#171) | -0.08 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#150) | 0.482 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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