Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -410 DEN +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEN +7 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -13.4 (-20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -12.7 (-19.7) | 159.9 (+5.1) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -12.7 (-19.7) | 163.0 (+2.0) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -12.4 (-19.4) | 162.5 (+2.5) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -12.8 (-19.8) | 161.9 (+3.1) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 75 DEN |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UNCO 86 – 82 DEN |
| Dec 17, 2020 | UNCO 83 – 75 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#118) | -5.5 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#79) | -0.55 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#69) | -1.75 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#100) | 0.483 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 61.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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