Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | LT -700 NMSU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +20 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | LT -16.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -12.4 (+7.6) | 135.6 (-9.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -12.1 (+7.9) | 134.5 (-8.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -13.0 (+7.0) | 134.0 (-8.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -12.5 (+7.5) | 135.3 (-9.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NMSU 72 – 63 LT |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NMSU 67 – 55 LT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NMSU 78 – 48 LT |
| Feb 25, 2024 | LT 67 – 58 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#82) | -5.6 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#89) | -0.70 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#76) | -0.81 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#64) | 0.456 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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