Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU +310 LT -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -11.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -10.3 (+1.3) | 131.4 (-6.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -9.8 (+0.8) | 132.4 (-7.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -11.1 (+2.1) | 132.4 (-7.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -10.5 (+1.5) | 132.7 (-7.7) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NMSU 72 – 63 LT |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NMSU 67 – 55 LT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NMSU 78 – 48 LT |
| Jan 27, 2024 | LT 73 – 53 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#291) | 7.0 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#253) | 0.93 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#252) | 1.45 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#278) | 0.571 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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