See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
Conference USA · Thomas Assembly Center · February 5, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread LT -1.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Under
Money LT -120 / NMSU +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total LT win
Actual NMSU +9 135 Lost
Massey NMSU -1.6 (-7.4) — —
Massey Totals — 131.2 (+3.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 68% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 56% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ NMSU -1.5 (-7.5) 133.6 (+1.4) 50% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML NMSU -1.5 (-7.5) 133.1 (+1.9) 49% ✓
Baseline ML NMSU -0.8 (-8.2) 133.7 (+1.3) 44% ✓
Baseline Plus ML NMSU -1.4 (-7.6) 134.6 (+0.4) 49% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2025 NMSU 67 – 55 LT
Jan 4, 2025 NMSU 78 – 48 LT
Feb 25, 2024 LT 67 – 58 NMSU
Jan 27, 2024 LT 73 – 53 NMSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LT NMSU
Overall 20-14 16-16
Conference 11-9 8-12
Home 14-3 10-5
Away 4-10 3-8
Neutral 2-1 3-3
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.8 73.9
Avg Pts Against 67.8 73.8
Massey -4.9 (#239) -0.3 (#169)
Bradley-Terry -0.46 (#211) -0.68 (#225)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.85 (#226) -0.51 (#208)
RPI 0.479 (#223) 0.486 (#205)
Shooting & Four Factors LT NMSU
FG% 41.2% 42.5%
3PT% 28.0% 33.7%
REB / G 37.4 36.1
OREB / G 13.0 12.1
AST / TO 0.92 1.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.7% 49.3%
TOV% 17.4% 15.6%
ORB% 35.0% 33.3%
FT Rate 22.0% 25.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.4% 49.5%
Opp TOV% 16.8% 15.1%
DRB% 69.5% 71.2%
Opp FT Rate 25.9% 35.1%

Game Analysis

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