Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | CSUB +140 UCSB -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -1.6 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -1.2 (-9.8) | 137.9 (-8.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -3.0 (-8.0) | 136.1 (-7.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -0.8 (-10.2) | 138.7 (-9.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -0.9 (-10.1) | 140.4 (-11.4) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCSB 75 – 69 CSUB |
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCSB 109 – 84 CSUB |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UCSB 71 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSB 81 – 75 CSUB |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCSB 78 – 66 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#260) | 0.2 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#250) | -0.09 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#252) | -0.05 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#277) | 0.487 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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