Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -360 CSUB +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -8.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -5.3 (+6.7) | 132.6 (+11.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -4.6 (+7.4) | 130.9 (+13.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.9 (+7.1) | 132.9 (+11.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -5.6 (+6.4) | 133.5 (+10.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCSB 75 – 69 CSUB |
| Dec 7, 2025 | UCSB 109 – 84 CSUB |
| Mar 13, 2025 | UCSB 71 – 66 CSUB |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSB 81 – 75 CSUB |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UCSB 70 – 59 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#126) | -2.9 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#165) | -0.50 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#171) | -0.38 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#225) | 0.467 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 38.3% |
Game Analysis
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