Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -145 FAIR +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +7 | 195 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -10.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+58.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -6.8 (+0.2) | 138.2 (+56.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -5.3 (+1.7) | 138.3 (+56.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -6.6 (+0.4) | 138.0 (+57.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -6.9 (+0.1) | 137.6 (+57.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSM 69 – 47 FAIR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | FAIR 69 – 62 MSM |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FAIR 96 – 92 MSM |
| Feb 18, 2024 | FAIR 94 – 80 MSM |
| Feb 12, 2023 | FAIR 76 – 72 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#237) | -10.1 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#124) | -0.85 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#148) | -2.09 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#95) | 0.473 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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