Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -175 MSM +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +14 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -5.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -4.7 (+9.3) | 144.7 (+29.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -3.9 (+10.1) | 143.7 (+30.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -5.0 (+9.0) | 145.2 (+28.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -4.7 (+9.3) | 145.7 (+28.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSM 69 – 47 FAIR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | FAIR 69 – 62 MSM |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MSM 101 – 94 FAIR |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FAIR 96 – 92 MSM |
| Feb 12, 2023 | FAIR 76 – 72 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#177) | -3.0 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#193) | -1.29 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#209) | -1.26 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#164) | 0.437 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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