Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MSM +110 FAIR -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +4 | 188 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -0.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+38.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -0.2 (-3.8) | 148.1 (+39.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -0.4 (-4.4) | 146.1 (+41.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -0.1 (-4.1) | 146.9 (+41.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -0.0 (-4.0) | 148.8 (+39.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSM 69 – 47 FAIR |
| Mar 1, 2025 | FAIR 69 – 62 MSM |
| Dec 8, 2024 | MSM 101 – 94 FAIR |
| Feb 18, 2024 | FAIR 94 – 80 MSM |
| Feb 12, 2023 | FAIR 76 – 72 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-13 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#219) | -0.3 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#293) | -0.13 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#278) | -0.25 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#299) | 0.514 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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