Betting Lines
| Spread | JXST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | JXST -225 MTSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | JXST -9.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (+21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JXST -6.7 (+1.3) | 129.8 (+14.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JXST -6.0 (+2.0) | 130.6 (+13.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JXST -6.1 (+1.9) | 128.5 (+15.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JXST -6.2 (+1.8) | 129.8 (+14.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JXST 75 – 58 MTSU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | JXST 70 – 68 MTSU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JXST 77 – 63 MTSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MTSU 81 – 64 JXST |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MTSU 75 – 67 JXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JXST | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#176) | -7.3 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#246) | -0.81 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#196) | -0.91 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#267) | 0.450 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JXST | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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