Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | JXST +110 MTSU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JXST +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -5.4 (+22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -4.4 (+21.4) | 134.7 (-1.7) | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -4.2 (+21.2) | 135.6 (-2.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -3.5 (+20.5) | 134.1 (-1.1) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -4.2 (+21.2) | 135.6 (-2.6) | 25% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2025 | JXST 70 – 68 MTSU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | JXST 77 – 63 MTSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MTSU 81 – 64 JXST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JXST 76 – 68 MTSU |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MTSU 75 – 67 JXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JXST | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#244) | 3.7 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#244) | 0.58 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#237) | 0.69 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#236) | 0.570 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JXST | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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