Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | LIB -1600 NMSU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +25 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -14.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -12.7 (+12.3) | 140.4 (+0.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -13.2 (+11.8) | 138.2 (+2.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -11.6 (+13.4) | 137.7 (+3.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -12.3 (+12.7) | 138.5 (+2.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | LIB 77 – 75 NMSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | LIB 73 – 71 NMSU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LIB 64 – 54 NMSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | LIB 68 – 60 NMSU |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NMSU 79 – 73 LIB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#118) | -7.3 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#140) | -0.82 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#131) | -0.97 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#131) | 0.441 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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