Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU +140 LIB -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +10 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -5.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -4.0 (-6.0) | 133.8 (-15.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -4.0 (-6.0) | 132.7 (-14.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -4.6 (-5.4) | 132.8 (-14.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -4.5 (-5.5) | 133.1 (-15.1) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | LIB 77 – 75 NMSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | LIB 73 – 71 NMSU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | LIB 68 – 60 NMSU |
| Mar 1, 2024 | LIB 83 – 58 NMSU |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NMSU 79 – 73 LIB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#173) | 7.4 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#173) | 1.43 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#163) | 1.95 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#187) | 0.556 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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