Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +25 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -24.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -21.5 (+3.5) | 147.1 (-8.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -18.2 (+6.8) | 148.3 (-9.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -17.7 (+7.3) | 144.8 (-5.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -21.2 (+3.8) | 147.2 (-8.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | ARK 93 – 56 CARK |
| Dec 2, 2021 | ARK 97 – 60 CARK |
| Dec 13, 2020 | ARK 100 – 75 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#33) | -11.3 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#52) | -2.48 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#59) | -2.94 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#56) | 0.336 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.1% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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