Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -24.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +25 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -26.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -28.3 (-3.3) | 154.4 (+20.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -21.0 (+4.0) | 155.2 (+19.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -22.9 (+2.1) | 152.6 (+22.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -25.8 (-0.8) | 152.0 (+23.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | ARK 93 – 56 CARK |
| Dec 14, 2024 | ARK 82 – 57 CARK |
| Dec 2, 2021 | ARK 97 – 60 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 5-19 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 4-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 4-5 |
| Away | 5-4 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 82.8 |
| Massey | 19.5 (#2) | -0.7 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#70) | -1.29 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#73) | -1.60 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#151) | 0.437 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 48.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 30.5% |
| ORB% | 37.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.6% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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