Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -4.0 Push |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -2.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -2.4 (+1.6) | 152.3 (+1.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -1.4 (+2.6) | 149.2 (+4.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -2.6 (+1.4) | 151.4 (+2.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -2.7 (+1.3) | 151.6 (+2.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | COFC 72 – 63 DREX |
| Feb 22, 2025 | DREX 64 – 55 COFC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | COFC 80 – 70 DREX |
| Feb 3, 2023 | DREX 70 – 69 COFC |
| Feb 26, 2022 | DREX 80 – 79 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#158) | 0.9 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#153) | 0.14 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#161) | 0.10 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#150) | 0.496 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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