Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -130 HOU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +12 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | ARIZ -0.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -1.0 (-11.0) | 144.8 (-12.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -0.2 (-11.8) | 142.0 (-10.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -1.1 (-13.1) | 146.2 (-14.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -0.5 (-12.5) | 144.6 (-12.6) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARIZ 79 – 74 HOU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARIZ 73 – 66 HOU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | HOU 72 – 64 ARIZ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HOU 62 – 58 ARIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-0 | 16-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 9-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.0 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 58.8 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#2) | 20.5 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.04 (#1) | 2.92 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.66 (#1) | 3.77 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#2) | 0.634 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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