Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -260 ARIZ +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -5.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -5.2 (+2.8) | 134.3 (+1.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -5.1 (+2.9) | 134.2 (+1.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -6.5 (+1.5) | 135.9 (+0.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -6.1 (+1.9) | 133.6 (+2.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARIZ 79 – 74 HOU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARIZ 73 – 66 HOU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HOU 62 – 58 ARIZ |
| Mar 25, 2022 | HOU 72 – 60 ARIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 10-0 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 24.7 (#3) | 19.6 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#6) | 2.59 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.15 (#5) | 3.44 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#6) | 0.582 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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