Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -130 HOU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -4.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -3.2 (+1.8) | 139.8 (+13.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -1.9 (+3.1) | 137.8 (+15.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -3.9 (+1.1) | 137.6 (+15.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -3.5 (+1.5) | 137.8 (+15.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARIZ 73 – 66 HOU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | HOU 72 – 64 ARIZ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HOU 62 – 58 ARIZ |
| Mar 25, 2022 | HOU 72 – 60 ARIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-3 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 9-1 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 11-1 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 26.5 (#3) | 22.5 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.19 (#1) | 3.91 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.42 (#3) | 4.88 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.669 (#3) | 0.633 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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