Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | ARK +125 TTU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -1.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -1.3 (+0.7) | 144.4 (-10.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -1.3 (+0.7) | 139.2 (-5.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -1.4 (+0.6) | 142.9 (-8.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -1.5 (+0.5) | 143.7 (-9.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | ARK 93 – 86 TTU |
| Mar 28, 2025 | TTU 85 – 83 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 9-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 63.2 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#8) | 15.2 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#12) | 2.64 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#13) | 3.34 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#15) | 0.568 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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