Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ARK +120 TTU -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +7 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -0.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -0.6 (+7.6) | 150.1 (+28.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -1.5 (+8.5) | 149.8 (+29.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -0.4 (+7.4) | 143.5 (+35.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -0.8 (+7.8) | 146.9 (+32.1) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2025 | TTU 85 – 83 ARK |
| Mar 21, 2021 | ARK 68 – 66 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#24) | 16.1 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#28) | 2.77 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.19 (#23) | 4.05 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#47) | 0.675 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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