Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -240 ARK +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -5.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -5.0 (-3.0) | 147.2 (+20.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -6.3 (-4.3) | 145.8 (+22.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -5.4 (-3.4) | 147.9 (+20.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -5.6 (-3.6) | 148.6 (+19.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | ARK 93 – 86 TTU |
| Mar 21, 2021 | ARK 68 – 66 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 20.3 (#9) | 14.5 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#13) | 2.72 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.95 (#13) | 3.39 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#24) | 0.574 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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