Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -190 ME +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +15 | 99 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -1.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -0.6 (-15.6) | 131.3 (-32.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -2.7 (-17.7) | 130.6 (-31.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -2.1 (-17.1) | 126.4 (-27.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -1.9 (-16.9) | 127.6 (-28.6) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | ME 76 – 70 UVM |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UVM 67 – 62 ME |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVM 65 – 61 ME |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UVM 55 – 49 ME |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UVM 68 – 57 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 10-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#245) | -3.2 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#177) | -0.62 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#185) | -0.71 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#113) | 0.486 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 28.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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