Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | FIU +185 LIB -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +3 | 191 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -1.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+39.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -0.3 (-3.3) | 144.0 (+47.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -0.8 (-2.2) | 142.9 (+48.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -0.1 (-2.9) | 142.6 (+48.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -0.2 (-2.8) | 143.8 (+47.2) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | LIB 90 – 89 FIU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | LIB 58 – 45 FIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LIB 82 – 59 FIU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | FIU 76 – 71 LIB |
| Jan 19, 2024 | LIB 78 – 69 FIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-10 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#188) | 4.1 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#169) | 1.03 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#171) | 1.38 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#122) | 0.555 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 58.8% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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