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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
4–2 on winners
spread MAE 13.3
6 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hofstra
@
Norfolk State
|
+11.1 | 135.2 | 84% | 80–67 | ✗ |
Charleston Southern
@
South Carolina State
|
+3.9 | 142.7 | 64% | 63–82 | ✓ |
Pennsylvania
@
VCU
|
+26.6 | 135.3 | 99% | 47–66 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Baylor
|
+19.5 | 151.9 | 96% | 57–88 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Tennessee
|
+20.3 | 151.0 | 97% | 62–75 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Butler
|
+11.3 | 147.3 | 85% | 71–68 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.