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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–8 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Incarnate Word
@
Duke
|
+30.8 | 140.7 | 100% | 46–72 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
NC State
|
+29.8 | 134.3 | 100% | 56–66 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+12.4 | 170.3 | 87% | 63–85 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Davidson
|
+11.2 | 148.2 | 84% | 71–75 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Princeton
|
+15.6 | 151.8 | 92% | 67–71 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Rutgers
|
-6.6 | 169.5 | 28% | 76–80 | ✗ |
Rhode Island
@
Brown
|
-4.2 | 149.5 | 35% | 80–84 | ✗ |
Morgan State
@
Xavier
|
+22.7 | 156.2 | 98% | 58–119 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
West Virginia
|
+22.1 | 147.1 | 98% | 45–79 | ✓ |
UAlbany
@
Syracuse
|
+9.1 | 159.1 | 80% | 85–102 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+8.9 | 155.1 | 79% | 78–75 | ✗ |
Troy
@
Houston
|
+22.8 | 135.4 | 98% | 42–62 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Western Kentucky
|
+19.9 | 161.6 | 96% | 60–84 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
South Dakota
|
+5.9 | 164.7 | 70% | 81–82 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
Tulane
|
+6.5 | 151.6 | 72% | 58–86 | ✓ |
Providence
@
DePaul
|
+7.6 | 135.7 | 76% | 70–63 | ✗ |
Michigan
@
Arkansas
|
-0.8 | 144.3 | 47% | 87–89 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Illinois
|
+13.4 | 156.4 | 89% | 80–86 | ✓ |
Kansas City
@
Portland
|
+3.4 | 142.5 | 62% | 69–64 | ✗ |
Cornell
@
California
|
+5.8 | 168.1 | 70% | 88–80 | ✗ |
Long Beach State
@
San Diego
|
+6.5 | 132.7 | 72% | 76–70 | ✗ |
Eastern Washington
@
Washington
|
+7.5 | 144.2 | 75% | 69–87 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Baylor
|
+18.2 | 151.3 | 95% | 69–94 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
UMass Lowell
|
+12.7 | 157.1 | 88% | 62–69 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.