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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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34–12 on winners spread MAE 10.8 46 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Cincinnati @ Kansas State	-8.3	139.2	23%	67–70	✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese	+10.9	128.1	84%	51–79	✓
New Hampshire @ Iowa	+32.2	151.5	100%	70–112	✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina	+15.4	142.5	92%	59–69	✓
Alabama State @ Missouri	+23.0	163.3	98%	65–82	✓
Houston @ Oklahoma State	-17.2	139.6	6%	60–47	✓
Oakland @ Arkansas	+19.6	137.5	96%	62–92	✓
TCU @ Arizona	+16.4	138.5	93%	81–90	✓
Bryant @ Grand Canyon	+7.1	160.9	74%	66–112	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Vanderbilt	+30.3	163.9	100%	56–100	✓
Iowa State @ Colorado	-7.7	150.6	24%	79–69	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Mississippi State	+26.0	144.3	99%	73–87	✓
Southern @ Nebraska	+19.0	139.0	96%	43–77	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Washington State	+13.9	144.9	90%	59–73	✓
Portland @ Oregon State	+27.0	144.0	99%	79–89	✓
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine	-20.4	156.9	3%	89–82	✓
Nicholls @ Seattle U	+11.6	147.3	85%	71–69	✗
UC Irvine @ California Baptist	-5.0	145.0	33%	71–63	✓
Santa Clara @ San Francisco	+6.2	144.0	71%	94–97	✓
Pacific @ San Diego	+2.1	137.3	58%	65–75	✓
NC State @ Virginia	+2.6	117.6	59%	67–70	✓
West Virginia @ Kansas	+7.8	140.4	76%	62–61	✗
Brown @ Kentucky	+21.7	159.4	98%	54–88	✓
Utah @ Baylor	+10.6	162.7	83%	56–81	✓
UCF @ Texas Tech	+17.1	153.8	94%	87–83	✗
Tulane @ Charlotte	+2.4	147.0	59%	83–68	✗
Wake Forest @ Syracuse	+3.6	142.4	63%	81–71	✗
VCU @ St. Bonaventure	+3.9	124.9	64%	75–77	✓
Massachusetts @ Saint Joseph's	+14.9	151.4	91%	72–81	✓
Saint Louis @ Fordham	+4.2	156.7	65%	88–63	✗
Rhode Island @ Duquesne	-5.0	144.2	32%	55–67	✗
La Salle @ Dayton	+15.9	148.5	93%	70–84	✓
Davidson @ George Mason	+7.3	140.8	75%	57–69	✓
Seton Hall @ Xavier	+14.4	129.0	90%	72–94	✓
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech	+0.0	145.5	50%	75–86	✓
Norfolk State @ Tennessee	+25.1	135.8	99%	52–67	✓
East Carolina @ South Florida	+2.6	145.8	59%	69–75	✓
Arizona State @ BYU	+7.7	150.2	76%	56–76	✓
UAB @ North Texas	+12.3	144.4	87%	75–78	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Abilene Christian	+1.8	123.8	56%	62–57	✗
George Washington @ Richmond	-4.0	145.7	36%	61–66	✗
UNLV @ Air Force	-4.1	130.3	35%	77–58	✓
St. John's @ Creighton	-2.0	155.0	43%	56–57	✗
Virginia Tech @ Duke	+28.0	127.8	99%	65–88	✓
Colorado State @ San José State	+0.9	146.6	53%	72–50	✗
Marquette @ Providence	-5.1	138.8	32%	78–50	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.