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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–13 on winners spread MAE 10.1 38 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Vanderbilt @ Alabama +11.7 173.8 86% 87–103 ✓
Mississippi State @ Tennessee +8.2 140.2 77% 56–68 ✓
Butler @ UConn +11.5 147.2 85% 78–80 ✓
Texas Tech @ Cincinnati -2.0 132.5 43% 81–71 ✓
Boston College @ Virginia +7.7 124.6 76% 56–74 ✓
VCU @ Rhode Island -3.3 145.6 38% 81–57 ✓
George Mason @ St. Bonaventure +2.7 126.3 60% 75–62 ✗
Dayton @ Duquesne -1.6 137.3 44% 82–62 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson +1.2 148.6 54% 78–61 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan +13.8 147.6 89% 70–72 ✓
Kent State @ Toledo +1.2 141.5 54% 83–64 ✗
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) +12.1 153.4 87% 76–84 ✓
Ball State @ Central Michigan +5.9 140.8 70% 82–80 ✗
Akron @ Buffalo -11.1 161.8 16% 90–58 ✓
Ohio State @ Purdue +7.9 146.0 76% 73–70 ✗
UTSA @ UAB +11.6 170.4 85% 78–81 ✓
Bradley @ Belmont -3.6 159.5 37% 89–77 ✓
UCF @ Iowa State +18.3 157.6 95% 83–108 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall -14.1 136.8 10% 76–59 ✓
East Carolina @ Tulsa -4.0 141.7 36% 85–76 ✓
Missouri State @ Northern Iowa +12.2 140.3 87% 68–79 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State +10.0 165.0 82% 81–85 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +2.2 152.6 58% 80–81 ✓
Missouri @ Texas +1.6 152.2 56% 53–61 ✓
Arizona State @ West Virginia +8.2 134.3 77% 65–57 ✗
Louisville @ SMU +2.4 159.2 58% 98–73 ✗
Arizona @ Oklahoma State -13.8 153.5 10% 92–78 ✓
North Carolina @ Wake Forest -4.5 146.3 34% 66–67 ✗
Minnesota @ Iowa +10.8 155.5 84% 72–67 ✗
Creighton @ DePaul -4.4 152.0 35% 73–49 ✓
Wisconsin @ UCLA +2.7 141.4 60% 83–85 ✓
Washington @ Oregon +13.8 146.7 89% 71–82 ✓
Wyoming @ UNLV +8.5 133.9 78% 63–61 ✗
BYU @ Colorado -3.9 148.2 36% 83–67 ✓
Utah @ Houston +19.1 136.5 96% 36–70 ✓
Army @ Holy Cross +2.7 151.1 60% 76–71 ✗
Furman @ VMI -6.7 139.7 27% 82–91 ✗
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +3.4 143.5 62% 72–70 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.